Hanrick’s Hard Yards #3
This is a weekend where a lot of the handicaps appeal to me. I will keep my stakes low though, as I know handicaps are not a market I am very good at. Please follow my twitter handle (www.twitter.com/hanrickswart), for bets on points and tries markets, as the bookmakers bring these markets out too late to include in the preview.
Super Rugby Round 11 Preview
Hurricanes vs Sunwolves
The handicap for this game is similar to that of the Sunwolves previous game. The Hurricanes are 39.5 points favourites here. If the weather is good the Hurricanes should cover this handicap. These big handicaps are always hard to call though, so I’ll keep my stakes low. On the points and tries markets I would like to get Hurricanes over 7.5 tries.
1 unit Hurricanes -39.5 at 9/10
Stormers vs Rebels
The Stormers are favourites and the handicap varies from 10.5 to 13.5. With the Stormers back at Newlands I am happy to take the -10.5 here. With afternoon games I always look at having an overs play. I got burnt with that tactic in the last few afternoon games though, so I’m a bit weary. We will also get a lot of (and much needed) rain in Cape Town on Wednesday and Thursday. The drainage at Newlands is very good, but the field is sure to be a bit heavier after the predicted rain. My bets on points and tries will be dependent on what quotes the bookies come out with, but if there is a total points quote of close to 60, I might well go low even though it’s an afternoon game.
2 units Stormers -10.5 at 9/10
Reds vs Lions
The Lions are 11.5 points favourites on the handicap here. With the Reds’ inability to score tries and the Lions’ very good defence the last 2 games the Lions minus looks the right play here. For the same reasons I will look at an unders play on Reds points here.
1 unit Lions -12.5 at 9/10
Blues vs Jaguares
The Blues are 9.5 points favourites against the Jaguares. For a struggling side like the Blues an almost double digit handicap seems big. The Jaguares are on the up and their confidence must be high. I will have a small play on the plus here. This is a tough one on points and tries, but some of the Blues
Games have been high scoring so overs might be the way to go here. I will wait for the quotes before making a call, but might look at an overs play on Jaguares points.
0.5 units Jaguares +9.5 at 19/20
Brumbies vs Crusaders
The handicap is set at 14.5 points with the Crusaders being the favourites. The Brumbies have mostly been very poor this season and the Crusaders have been hit and miss. The NZ sides do have a mental edge over the Aussie sides though and I think the Crusaders should win by 3 scores or more. I will look at a Crusaders overs or Brumbies Unders bet here, depending on the quotes.
2 units Crusaders -14.5 at 9/10
Bulls vs Highlanders
The Bulls are underdogs at home and the handicap is 5.5 points. The Bulls have been very good to punters on the handicap this season. The Highlanders like to kick the ball to the opposition and then try to play off turnover possession. The Bulls on the other hand like to keep possession. This contrast in styles should be interesting to watch. With the Bulls playing at home and playing good rugby at the moment I have a small preference for the plus handicap. With the Highlanders putting a lot of emphasis on defence and the Bulls focussing more on attack, this is a tough call on the points and tries markets.
0.5 units Bulls +5.5 at 9/10