Recap: Week 55
This week: Profit of 0.975 units off 72 units (1.4% ROT) over 54 plays at 24/54 or 44.4% SR
Overall: Profit of 33.48 units off 1,294.75 units (2.59% ROT) over 859 plays at 437/859 or 50.87% SR
The week ended flat, 4 unit Bulls plus arriving along with Jaguares at 3 units, but Bulls board bet along with the Rebels plus losing after the siren was crucial in turning what would have been a great week into a flat one. Thanks to some bad pricing on the Japanese on finals day in the sevens a profit was derived albeit a tiny one.
Week 55 brings up the 29th winning week which effectively means I have 12% more winning weeks than losing ones or I am winning 52.7% of the time, this does go along with the Strike Rate achieved so far of 50.9% however because of a clever unit spread profit is better than the Strike Rate is especially on Sevens, Super Rugby although getting 3/7 bets right the loss was just 0.25 units but the SR was 42.8% anyway enough of that, lets look at the games.
As mentioned before, I have effectively turned the Pro 14 up, after almost 18 weeks I was flat turning over 140 units with nearly 100 games, two weeks later I found myself down 12 units and realising that I had called it badly, so like anything that does not work for you, discipline and money management come in to play and ultimately the right decision needed to be made.
This week was my last punt at Pro 14 in the ’17 ’18 season, I may suggest where I would go in the Finals, but quite frankly I have no interest in chucking good money after bad, I need to learn a lot still in order to be profitable in the long run.
Apologies if you have lost like me, but that is how it goes unfortunately.
Cheetahs showed up at Kings in PE over the weekend, and like Brent Graham from Good for the game suggested, both he and I had read it wrong. The Cheetahs got in front and effectively parked the bus, all they wanted or needed for that matter was the win, once they had that, there was no reason to continue ‘trying’. Loss: 1 unit
Friday started off well, and with every winning play on low confidence it’s easy to say afterwards that I should have put more on, the Sunwolves came to play and for parts of the game delivered a reasonable resistance, the plus was never in danger. Well done to those who had more confidence than me, I am usually cautious when the handicap gets too big. Profit: 0.45 units
In the Stormers v Rebels game it looked bad for me especially just after HT, I watched with interest to see if the Rebels would do what the Reds had done, with just a handful of minutes left the plus was back in, the siren goes and all that should happen is the Stormers kick the ball into RowZ but alas they continued to play, sure I lost because they scored, sure the match was not in doubt but, one has to ask is this the sort of gamble teams like the Stormers should be taking? They had no shot at a try bonus point, the obvious risk here was the rebels getting a bonus point if they got the ball, and an injury could have resulted? In the end in my opinion Stormers should not have taken the risk, the log looks the same but it could have looked different. Loss: 3 units
Lions go to Reds and within in an instant they are down 10 zip, eight minutes after HT they are 27 zip down, we know they will score, but jeez it looks gone, at this point you also know the game is gone, anyway 22pts later after 31mins the game is done and they lose by five, This may be a wakeup call as there were far too many hail Mary’s and ridiculous decisions made in that game, a word of caution, don’t read anything into a good Reds win here, this was 100% bad Lions. Loss: 2 units
Jaguares are now on a 3 match winning run on their tour, with one game left v Chiefs on Friday they may become one of a handful if any of teams that can go 4 for 4 in the Australasian tour, what a feat that would be, I highlighted in my video that they had the wrong favourite, I also said I would probably have a go at the board, which I did do, anyway my initial play was 3 units, it should have been 5. Profit: 2.7 units
Not much to say in the Brumbies v Crusaders game, the Crusaders that turned up were not as lethal as they could have been, I consider myself lucky that I only went a single unit on this one. Loss: 1 units
Lastly the Bulls v Highlanders are up, I liked Bulls as I went 4 units on the plus, I also went a unit on the board, my main play was clearly the Plus and as mentioned in my video, the Highlanders have not beaten the Bulls by more than 7 in nearly 12 years, this Bulls team are much better than in previous years, the board bet lost for two reasons, firstly Pollard not taking a 3 pointer when the siren’s red numbers are in play at HT, especially in a kicking position, Bulls are leading by 4 and they go for a try? This was both silly and ridiculous, anyway the second reason…they get up in the shadow of the post and with last play on they increase the penalty count in dramatic fashion, well done to the Highlanders for securing the win. Profit: 2.6 units
Singapore sevens started off with me reading the Argentinians badly, I rectify it by going Samoa on the board and recovering, only to read SA wrong v Argentina, anyway Day one ends losing a unit, day two started off well with a couple of games going right, day two ends with some great plays on Japan after the bookies fell into my Argentina trap and could not read the Japs, anyway a small profit was derived and we now look forward to London on the 2nd of June. SA have it all to do now that HK has come to bite them, they are now 4pts adrift the log leaders. Profit: 2.225 units
With a 55.9% Strike Rate (SR) in Super Rugby, the only question on everyone’s lips, Are you following the Oracle??