Recap: Week 66
A winning week for a change, noticed by one or two guys, yes it has been hard recently, shedding no less than 26 units in 3 horrible weeks, this week winning back six of them, however only correctly predicting three out of the seven games, but again putting the right units on and getting decent prices will make a difference as it did this week.
Chiefs v Hurricanes
Now the Chiefs fielded a weaker team, and by rights the Hurricanes were installed as favourites, but I have been around long enough to know that this does not always mean the favourites will win. I was admittedly surprised to find that the Chiefs were not favourite, instead I saw a price that just seemed too big, so my play here was based on value and not so much on who I thought would win.
It proved correct as I started the week off with an almost 5 unit profit only risking three. The Chiefs sped off to a twenty one nil start, sure the Hurricanes came back, we knew they would, what we did not know was that another red card would come and grab us. In the end the Chiefs held on but it could quiet easily have gone against us?
Profit: 4.95 units
Reds v Sunwolves
The Sunwolves smashed the Reds last time out, albeit in Tokyo, so the Reds were looking for a bit of payback, payback is what they got. Early on the Sunwolves were in it, and then the second red of the week, the Sunwolves No 7 laying a punch into a Red on the floor, intentional or not, it’s not acceptable and quite frankly he got what he deserved!!
I was only in for a unit and I did go a rather unlikely board bet here at a ridiculous price, but anyway I got beaten. Well done Reds you played the conditions and did enough to beat the Sunwolves comfortably, a dead rubber by all accounts and would be the last game for both teams this year.
Loss: 1 unit
Highlanders v Rebels
Rebels came out to play, they needed to win to insure 8th spot as they had the Sharks breathing down their necks, they almost got the win, however the Highlanders who did not seem to care much arrived by the skin of their teeth in the second half and just got up.
A miserable game by all accounts unless you had money on the rebels plus.
Loss: 1 unit
Crusaders v Blues
Again I start off by saying I don’t have much to say here, seriously this is by far the worst team we have seen coming out of New Zealand in twenty years seriously how does this coach and that clown from the Stormers still have a job?
The Blues were in trouble early on, only a runaway try their saviour in the first half, then somehow they got back into it, down by nine with just sixteen to play, it all went the same way as their season, bang, bang, bang and one last bang, 28 unanswered points in those sixteen minutes buried any plus anyone had, in fact if you were on an unlikely Crusaders -37.5 you would feel hard done by!!
Loss: 0.25 units (Very luckily I decided to keep it to an absolute minimum!!)
Waratahs v Brumbies
Now you would have told me that the Waratahs were the ones to beat here, you would have told me they had to win to secure top spot, in fact you may have even told me a few more things I did not know, but and I say but, if you told me the Brumbies who had, had three great weeks of rugby were the plus eight outsiders priced up at an unbelievable 2/1, I would have stopped you and said what? The Brumbies are 2/1, hmmm I will have some of that, and that is exactly what I did.
Well done if you followed me here, it was simply too big, and unlucky if you did not follow me, remember most punting is about price, not always, but mostly!!
Profit: 2 units
Lions v Bulls
I watched this game at Berea rover’s pub whilst at Kings Park stadium awaiting the Sharks v Jaguares game, no volume and a pub filled with other people who clearly did not care about the game? I had to practically beg the uninterested barmaid to switch channels as they had the Craven Week on instead, anyway the Bulls started off like a house on fire, I was impressed and it is not often I go against the lions of late and at twelve nil I was ruing my decision to go plus and had felt the board may have been a better option. At HT the Lions had got their noses in front after some decent defence by the Bulls, but that is all I got from the Bulls.
The second half was one way traffic and I was left stunned that my three unit play was clearly on the wrong team. Well done Lions, I won’t make that mistake again!!
Loss: 3 units
Sharks v Jaguares
I did suggest that I may go Jaguares if the rebels won or if the Bulls beat the Lions, neither happened so I was now on a minus four that had moved considerably to minus seven, it made no difference, even the rain, wind and cold weather did not dampen a spirited Sharks team.
The Jaguares after three seasons have failed to beat the big four in SA, and this now being their twelfth attempt did not do better than they had done in the previous eleven, sadly next week they play the Lions and I have absolutely no doubt which way I am going…
No iré con los Jaguares !!
Profit: 4.5 units
- Profit: 6.2 units off 14.25 units over 7 plays (ROT: 43.5%) with 3/7 or 42.9% SR
- Profit: 1.6 units off 246 units over 132 plays (ROT: 0%) with 60/132 or 45.5%)
Overall Super Rugby.
- Profit: 6.525 units off 403 units over 214 plays (ROT: 1.6%) with 107/214 at 50% SR
- Profit: 21.55 units off 1580.75 units over 1054 plays (ROT: 1.36%) with 526/1054 at 49.91%