Preview: Week 67
Super Rugby Quarter Finals are upon us, wow what a bunch of fixtures we have, a NZ Derby, a Tasman Ditch clash, a SA Conference Derby and the perennial playoff attendees the Sharks v the best team in the comp since it began almost twenty five years ago!!
There is a bit of value to be found if you look hard enough, the NZ teams have been overpriced and the others have been undervalued.
Here’s to a great weekend!!
Hurricanes v Chiefs
A repeat of last week’s match up, albeit at a different venue on the same island, ok 400 clicks separate the two stadiums, there are no cow bells, support will be lower, but honestly I reckon the Chiefs have this one, the Hurricanes are a shadow of their last two years exploits and will be beaten here.
Normally I go plus when to NZ teams go head to head, but this week I feel the right way to go is with the winning habit team, winning as they say is a habit.
Hurricanes have only won one of their last four, against the Blues, and we know how crap they are, the Chiefs on the other hand have won three of their last four including an outsider win v the Canes.
I will not play around here, the value is undoubtedly with the visitors and that is where I will go with a reasonable amount of confidence
Call: Chiefs on the board at 2/1 for 2 units (Bet taken at Morris Vee)
Kick off is scheduled for 09h35 GMT +2 on Friday in Wellington. The referee for this game will be Glen Jackson (NZ), Click here for the Weather in Wellington and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #HURvCHI
Crusaders v Sharks
A few years ago a Sharks team came down to Christchurch and got a RED card, Mr du Plessis got his marching orders, the whole world thought oh no here we go, it’s over, but the Sharks went on to reach the final and although they lost, they showed that any team can go over the ocean and win, come back and win, but no one has done all three.
Crusaders have shown us that they were worthy champions last year and have come to dominate this year’s comp again, sure they have been beaten a couple of times, but seriously, they look good, at 7/10 to win the tournament there is really no value.
The way I see it, if the Crusaders win this week they may well have another NZ team in the Chiefs or Hurricanes the following week, then they will play the Lions. So from a mathematical point of view I see this:
- Crusaders v Sharks (1/7)
- Crusaders v Chiefs or Hurricanes (5/10)
- Crusaders v Lions (1/5)
- This multiple works out to just over evens, so there you go, if you are thinking about punting the 7/10 about the Crusaders, you are a mug and are being robbed blind, ok maybe not blind, but pretty close. If you think my maths os off, kindly send me an email with your perceived prices, I am honestly interested in seeing them!!
Anyway back to the game, so the Crusaders are priced up at a ridiculous -19.5, I am sorry but this is far too much, the Bulls lost by nineteen and the Sharks are way better than the Bulls, and are way better at traveling, sure the Hurricanes smashed them two years in a row, but this Sharks team has performed above expectations v NZ opposition this year, that is indeed where my money will go this year. I may even have a board bet closer to GT
Call: Sharks +19.5 at 0.95 for 3 units (Bet taken at Keith Ho BetXchange)
Kick off is scheduled for 09h35 GMT +2 on Saturday in Christchurch. The referee for this game will be Mike Fraser (NZ), Click here for the Weather in Christchurch and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #CRUvSHA
Waratahs v Highlanders
Waratahs v Highlanders was my big play a while ago, the Waratahs could not get up and allowed the Highlanders to dictate matters, this will be the third year in a row that only one solitary Aussie team has made it this far, most will argue they don’t belong, but for a skewered conference system that allows them to stage a home game, but let’s not dwell on that.
Waratahs have been dished a home game against a team I liked pre-tournament, not sure why, but the last three weeks the Highlanders have played rubbish rugby, they have lost two of their last three and almost got embarrassed last week against an equally rubbish Rebels outfit, four weeks ago they smashed the Hurricanes, but when they arrived in Fiji they got done properly and their run ended.
Waratahs in my opinion will not make the same mistake as their Aussie counterparts the Brumbies who have not gone further in two attempts, in fact the very same Highlanders and Hurricanes sorted that out. Waratahs this year are better than the Brumbies have been in the last two years and now that they have a real chance at an unlikely semi-final, they will give it horns. If the Waratahs win this they are off to Joburg, or if they are extremely lucky they may be back home for a Semi, but that is unlikely!!
I am expecting the Waratahs to win this one, not necessarily by a long way, but at 13/10 to win on the board I have some interest, it’s one of those games that should be priced up at around 9/10 but luckily for us Waratahs punters we have been given the benefit.
Call: Waratahs on the board at 13/10 for 3 units (Bet taken at Morris Vee)
Kick off is scheduled for 11h45 GMT +2 on Saturday in Sydney. The referee for this game will be Angus Gardner (AUS), Click here for the Weather in Sydney and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #WARvHIG
Lions v Jaguares
Last week we saw the lions dispose of the Bulls in dramatic fashion, the Bulls got up first, in fact scoring twice without much reply, then the Lions turned it on, scoring thirty six unanswered points, sure they did not have to win by a country mile, but they did and this is exactly what has got me interested in this week’s fixture, the Jaguares have done nothing in SA bar beat the Kings and Cheetahs, the Lions on the brink of a third Semi Final in a row and almost a third Final in a row are not about to have this Jaguares team come close.
South Africa is a different animal to the Jags and they have shown that multiple times, something does not work here, it will be their third week in a row here and unfortunately it will be their third loss in a row. The Sharks beat this team in the rain by 10, the Bulls as rubbish as they are beat them by 7, ok fourteen if you ignore the siren score, but seriously, there is no evidence that I can quote that suggests that this match will be anything but distant.
Only a brave man would bet against the Lions here, I will not be one of them, this is a big call for me and at a great value price. I have ignored the nine to ten handicap and rather gone for a rather bold play.
For my mates who speak Spanish (Español):
Gracias a los Jaguars, tu viaje termina aquí, fue genial mientras duró, pero se acabó, ¡nos vemos el próximo año!
Call: Lions -15.5 at 2/1 for 4 units (Bet taken at Keith Ho BetXchange)
Kick off is scheduled for 15h05 GMT +2 on Saturday at Ellis Park. The referee for this game will be Jaco Peyper (SA), Click here for the Weather in Johannesburg and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #LIOvJAG
Sevens World Cup
Oracle will as always cover the Sevens world Cup
Click here to go to the Sevens World Cup page and follow the Oracle as he attempts to win cash on the sevens.
There are 52 games over three days and every game will be covered