Recap: Week 67
A decent week from a Super Rugby point of view, getting just half the plays right winning two and losing two, but considering my smart distribution of funds and taking better than nine to ten about price saw a winning week arriving when I would have shown a loss punting at the standard handicap price, it just shows my new modus operandi is paying off!!
Sevens on the other hand was lousy, but not as bad as it could have been!!
Hurricanes v Chiefs
I went with Chiefs, for two reasons, one they had the better of their opponents the week before and secondly they had what appeared to be a ridiculous price, at 2/1 about the win it seemed too big.
Chiefs were in it for a while, then an intercept try, those have gone for me as much as they had gone against me, this time it cost me.
Late on the Chiefs came back but it was far too little far too late. Hurricanes deserved semi-finalists and now they have to take on the eight time winners Crusaders.
It will be an interesting game, at least travel cannot be blamed!!
Loss: 2 units
Crusaders v Sharks
Sharks had done this before, albeit a while ago, but nevertheless they had done it. The Crusaders have had a stellar year, since beating the Lions in Joburg last year they have done extremely well, only two teams have beaten them, none at home, their home run has lasted since sometime in 2016, Sharks started off badly, allowing the crusaders to score twice, then they got an unlikely try, but held on to HT only going into the break down by 9.
The second half started the same as the first, Crusaders asserting their dominance and hitting their straps, sharks got a penalty but it was not enough as the Crusaders smashed the Sharks by thirty.
I was foolish going for the Sharks, sure they had nothing to lose, the whole world expecting them to lose, but they did not play like that, or maybe they did and the Crusaders are far better than we all thought.
All I know is the Hurricanes have their work cut out for themselves next week.
Loss: 3 Units
Waratahs v Highlanders
In my video I suggested that the Waratahs had lost to the Highlanders, but that was obviously incorrect, the red card may have helped but the Waratahs smashed them that day.
Waratahs played a ridiculous first half, they seemed to think they would get the opportunities they deserved? Unfortunately the Highlanders pounced as all NZ teams do and got full value for their HT lead, such was the display form the Waratahs that even I was not interested in the HT quotes, I honestly could not see the Waratahs coming back, as it happens, this is one of the biggest comebacks in finals rugby we may ever witness, well done to the Tahs, they got up and held on, I consider myself lucky here, but I will take it.
Profit: 3.9 units
Lions v Jaguares
My best bet of the weekend, my big play, my 2/1 strike at four units, a big price, a big play, the whole week we saw the handicap steadily go up from minus seven to around the minus ten mark, it was never enough, sure the Jaguares got up early, but you could see that when the Lions got the ball, they made it count, maybe not as clear as the crusaders, but not bad. Their win was comfortable in the end, sure it had a speed bump or two, but they did what they needed to do and at minus seven you were NEVER in trouble, my minus fifteen was a bit of a sweat, in fact right down to the final play.
A decent profit in the end, I will take it, I was effectively one tackle away from a losing week!!
Profit: 8 units
World Cup Sevens
I am of the opinion that the Bookies made a packet this weekend, form was out the door and value if you could find it was all that would make or break your weekend, sure we get these kind of tournaments from time to time, its just hellova frustrating when they swing around.
Almost no teams made it back to back on handicap, I went Kenya three times in a row, lost all of them, I must be forgiven for going Kenya the second time and the third time, I then went a fourth time and finally in their fifth game I went against them, they effectively lost 5/5 handicaps this weekend. Another team I got badly wrong…Chile, I got them right once but lost badly on them, Tonga I could not read at all.
Anyway I could go on all night, but I consider myself lucky only losing just under six units, it could have been a lot worse, I also got lucky a couple of times. An interesting format, had the coaches moaning and the pundits cheering, personally I did not mind too much. Knockout rugby is what it is, all I can say is that I will be better prepared for the next time we have this format.
Well done to San Francisco for putting up a great tournament, in a great venue and with great weather, it was a pleasure to watch, unfortunately it was late at night, but other than that I was impressed.
In summary it was horrible, nothing like the profits I have come to expect in sevens, but I will take a single digit loss over 52 games, when it could quite easily have been a lot worse!!
Loss: 5.95 units
- Profit: 6.9 units off 12 units over 4 plays (ROT: 57.5%) with 2/4 or 50% SR
- Profit: 8.5 units off 258 units over 136 plays (ROT: 3.3%) with 62/136 or 45.6% SR
Overall Super Rugby.
- Profit: 13.425 units off 415 units over 218 plays (ROT: 3.2%) with 109/218 at 50% SR
- This Week
- Loss: 5.95 units off 49 units over 52 plays (ROT: -12.1%) with 21/52 at 40% SR
- Overall Sevens
- Profit: 34.55 units off 589 units over 513 plays (ROT: 5.9%) with 257/513 at 50.1% SR
- This week
- Profit: 0.95 units off 61 units over 56 plays (ROT: 1.4%) with 23/56 at 41.1% SR
- Profit: 22.5 units off 1641.75 units over 1110 plays (ROT: 1.4%) with 549/1110 at 49.45% SR