Recap: Week 68
Another cracking week, with a nine unit profit, just two punts, Semi Finals are over and now just the Super Rugby final to go to close out a great season. Lions have to travel as the Crusaders did a year ago.
Interestingly both games started with roughly the same handicap at around minus 8 and both won by 18, this does not happen very often!!
Crusaders v Hurricanes
This was an interesting game, I felt that the Hurricanes had a chance to come close, I did not however think they would win, and sure I hoped so, but certainly did not expect it.
What I did not expect was the margin of victory, at HT I took a bit of +17.5 and felt it was a little too much, little did I know it would come down to a celebratory kick by Brad Shields No 6, who had clearly never taken a kick at goals before!!
Amazingly teams often don’t care about punters punts, now all the guys that took +17.5 NEEDED that kick and minus seventeen punters did not, the same happened when the Blues played their last game allowing Keino to kick, Keino’s kick was abysmal, at least Brad Shields hit the uprights.
Crusaders showed us why they are the best team in the comp, their second semi-final in a row and if they win next week will be their 2nd title in a row and their ninth in total.
For the Hurricanes to have won this game, they needed their predominantly All Black back line to fire, they also needed the Crusaders to have an off day, neither happened. Barrett was especially bad, his aimless punts up field did nothing, every time a coconut Beauden would give the ball back, in fact it is a miracle this game finished under twenty, and it was certainly not because of the Hurricanes.
Well done to anyone who backed the crusaders minus, it felt too much and although I was not that confident about the plus, I did not expect eighteen.
Loss: 1 unit
Lions v Waratahs
Lions have now been responsible for 18 units worth of profits in two weeks, simply because I have had the confidence in going well above the current 9/10 handicap looking for the value, I found it for two weeks in a row going at 2/1 around seven points above the nine to ten line. By my calculation 2/1 should be around nine points above, so when you get it at seven you are in the value.
Lions started another game behind, behind by fourteen before the ten minutes were up, it took the Lions twenty minutes before they were on the board, last week they allowed the Jaguares to start with six.
Interestingly although the Waratahs scored late in the first half, in fact on the siren, after being fourteen up they found themselves losing the next 66mins by 37 to 5 or five tries to one with a couple of peanuts for good measure.
In fact between minute 21 and minute 76 or 55mins in total they lost 37 v 5. That I would say was great Lions and not bad Waratahs, although I did spot a few Waratahs with their hands on the heads and hops, which is a sure sign of fatigue.
For the second week in a row my 2/1 punt was in play until the final whistle, this is exactly how you do not want to lose, but don’t mind winning. My two punts in the last two weeks on the Lions have been won on plays in the final minute, last week the Lions tackled the Jaguares into touch after the Siren and this week the Lions had a conversion in the 80th minute to secure my bet, we all knew that after the kick-off the Lions would boot it into RowZ.
Next week the Lions travel to Christchurch, a massive task awaits them, can they do it? I believe they can, will they do it? I don’t think so, but I do want them too. As at time of print the Crusaders are at 1/10, hardly any value, the Lions are at 7/1, not too much value either.
I am looking forward to all of these guys speaking to me during the week telling me the Lions have NO CHANCE, I would like them to put their money where their mouth is, I say punt the one to ten and show me your ticket or SHUT UP, or more politically correct…
PUT YOUR MONEY DOWN OR QUIETEN DOWN !!
I will find it difficult to believe that all these people who believe the Lions have no chance will be parting with Bond / Mortgage money on the one to ten, but who knows.
I will be out with my preview around Tuesday night SA time, until then have a great week.
Profit: 10 units
- Profit: 9 units off 6 units over 2 plays (ROT: 150%) with 1/2 or 50% SR
- Profit: 17.5 units off 264 units over 138 plays (ROT: 6.6%) with 63/137 or 46% SR
Overall Super Rugby.
- Profit: 22.425 units off 421 units over 220 plays (ROT: 5.3%) with 110/220 at 50% SR
- Profit: 31.5 units off 1647.75 units over 1112 plays (ROT: 1.91%) with 550/1112 at 49.46% SR