Recap: Week 69
Super Rugby Final
Super Rugby Final number three for the Lions in as many years, ending exactly the same as the others, in fact not only have the Lions lost all three finals they have lost the plus too. The Crusaders won their ninth title and boy did they look good.
Christchurch the venue, a packed house as expected, but probably one of the lowest full house turnouts we have ever seen, a small stadium with not to many Lions supporters.
Lions started off well, occupying the Crusaders 22m for large spells in the first half, looking good to score on many occasions, the Crusaders defence would have none of that.
Although the Lions did in fact have numerous opportunities to score in the first half, at HT the Crusaders lead by two tries, going into the sheds 20 – 6 up.
If the Lions had chances in the first half they had a plethora in the second, penalty after penalty but silly decision making and a lack of a game plan once their lineout driving maul was expertly foiled by an extremely well coached side, they ultimately failed.
When trailing by seventeen midway through the second half, the lions scored bringing the deficit to twelve with a kick to come, my punt was at plus ten and a half, the momentum was now with the Lions.
A penalty was an awarded and Combrink took the kick, it should have been a punt down the line, but instead it gave the ball back to the Crusaders, a quick lineout later it the deficit was back to nineteen.
After the siren the Lions had one more chance to pay the plus punters eighteen down to twelve, sadly for me my ten and half was a conversion too far, it would prove too much in the end as the Crusaders rewarding almost every minus punter alive.
Well done to the Crusaders and well done to the minus punters, it caps a reasonable Super Rugby campaign by Oracle Rugby, a profit was derived, better than in 2017, I do believe the difference was in the average price of my plays this year was the difference, I will continue to find value in the evens to 5/2 lines and stay away from the nine to ten stuff.
Anyway let’s have a look at our position after the completion of Super Rugby 2018
Super Rugby 2018 derived a ROT of 4.6% and a Strike rate of 45.6%, interestingly I averaged 14/10 about price, at this price my break-even would be a SR of just 41.7% or a full 110/1000 below that of 9/10 it just shows that this experiment is indeed working.
- Loss: 5 units off 5 units over 1 play (ROT: -100%) with 0/1 or 0% SR
- Profit: 12.5 units off 269 units over 139 plays (ROT: 4.6%) with 63/138 or 45.6% SR
Overall Super Rugby.
- Profit: 17.425 units off 426 units over 221 plays (ROT: 4.1%) with 110/221 at 49.8% SR
- Profit: 26.5 units off 1652.75 units over 1113 plays (ROT: 1.6%) with 550/1113 at 49.42% SR