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Los Pumas v Springboks

Last night on my Live Weekly Rugby Chat I suggested that Akker van der Merwe was left at home along with Ross Cronje. I was actually incorrect. Akkers is on the plane, and Ross Cronje will be playing for the Lions.

Pollard is also on the plane, this is odd, OK maybe not that odd, but it will be somewhat odd if he starts. Pollard appears low on confidence. Hanrick and Unbiased Rugby both agreed that it was an off day, I need more evidence.

Stats Suggest Plus is a Runner

Los Pumas v Springboks has played out six times since starting in the Rugby Championship. Four of those have arrived within the seven point, nine to ten handicap set by the bookies this week.

In two of those the minus has arrived. One of fourteen and another of eighteen, including the week after the Springboks lost v Los Pumas for the first time!!

The four results mentioned above were, a two pt. win by both the Boks and Los Pumas, a five point win by the Boks and a DRAW. Those who have been following me for a while will know that I do not base my play solely on stats.

Numbers have since an early age come easily to me. However, sometimes stats do show a wider picture that often is blurred by recent performances. South African Super Rugby sides all got done in Argentina. Lions by fourteen, the Bulls by thirty, the Sharks and Stormers by double digits.

Considering that the Springboks should be around twenty points better than their collective Super Rugby sides leads me to believe that this handicap should be around the three to five point line. Current books have the Boks at minus seven, it just feels a tad too high.

Verdict

Although I do not think Los Pumas will win here, more importantly they can. Therefore something to consider, perhaps those of you who like a big punt at a short price should take heed. Los Pumas can win here. Honestly I reckon it will just be a close game, so for that reason I have decided to have a conservative plus.

I will look for the best price I can find about my plus play and because of this I will update this post on Thursday.

Call: Los Pumas +5.5 at 11/10 for 2 uints (Bet Taken at WSB)

Best Prices Available

Kick off is scheduled for 21h10 GMT +2 (Local time 16h10) on Saturday in Mendoza. The referee for this game will be Angus Gardner (AUS), Click here for the Weather in Mendoza and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #ARGvRSA or #ARGvSA