Recap Week #72
Pumas v WP
I rated this as my best bet of the weekend, I went a full four units here. I took what I considered to be a relatively easy punt. Pumas have done well against WP, sure they have also lost badly too.
My price was 5/2 and at game time this had become the board price, money had clearly come for WP. I read it very badly. I took a lot of abuse on the social channels, for good reason I might add. Loads of guys asking me if I need to rethink my stance on WP.
At this stage I am not quite sure I got WP wrong, I did however get Pumas very wrong. I say that and I also say that not many teams come back from twenty nine nil down. So bad was the Pumas start, they did not have it in them to come back.
At HT I suggested to a few guys that I was not taking any more Pumas, like I had done at GT but I did think they would come back. I consider myself lucky I did not get more involved, it turned out to be a bloodbath. Four units to start my Ten and a Quarter down the toilet weekend!
Loss: 4 units
Cheetahs v Sharks
I really do not have much to say here! This game was horrific for a lot, well the ones that saw the immediate value in taking the extremely low minuses on offer. I do however suspect that a lot of guys took the big plusses on offer too and either hedged or stood them.
I was however of the opinion that the minus was the better of the two evils. I was wrong here too, luckily again for me I only spent 1 unit!!
Loss: 1 Unit
Bulls v Lions
All it took was six minutes for the Bulls to equalise v Lions. Sixteen minutes is all the Lions led by in this fixture. The Bulls led for the balance of the encounter, leading by fourteen a couple of times. Bulls could not however pull away and you knew the Lions were always in this one.
Unfortunately minus six proved to be a touch too far, in fact it was not a touch, and it was a lifetime away. OK so the Lions did have a chance to get over the line at the end. Their defence has to be recognised though, with the siren a heartbeat away the Bulls nearly stole it.
Well done if you got the Lions on the board, I was a little more optimistic
Loss: 4 units
Munster v Cheetahs
I have nothing other than to say, wow!! I know a couple of you reading this are going, I told you so. Honestly thirty eight zip, seriously?
Loss 0.5 units
Zebre v Kings
I lost here, but I really was impressed with the Kings, they certainly did not look rubbish, in fact I was more concerned with Zebre, they did not get by attention. I will be very weary of backing this team at home or away.
Loss: 0.25 units
Other games losing
In other games in the Pro 14 I had a nibble on Cardiff at home at what appeared to be a decent price, only to lose at the end.
Loss: 0.5 units
I suggested punting Ulster on the minus that lost, Ulster got up in the shadow of the post for the board, and the minus was not close.
Connacht at 15/10 looked good, only to have a shocking second half, another bad suggestion
Other games winning
Benetton actually won, I did not expect this, although I am not surprised, I suggested a punt at the plus, this obviously arrived comfortably.
Edinburgh at plus five and a half arrived thanks to a late Kinghom try!!
Ten and a Quarter down the Toilet
I lost every single punt this weekend, a horrible week by any standards, but as usual I will bounce back, I always do. I apologise if you lost, I also did, I am, if you don’t know already a punter not just a tipster, I take every single bet I post on my website. I feel your pain, but I am a winner and it won’t take long to get the money back.
- Loss: 10.25 units off 10.25 units over 6 plays (ROT: -100%) with 0/6 or 0% SR
- This week – Loss: 9 units off 9 units over 3 plays (ROT: -100%) with 0/3 or 0% SR
- Last year – Profit: 3.4 units off 119 units over 46 plays (ROT: 2.85%) with 26/46 or 56.5% SR
- Overall – Loss: 3.4 units off 138 units over 53 games (ROT: -2.5%) with 29/53 or 54.7% SR
- This week – Loss: 1.25 units off 1.25 units over 3 plays (ROT: -100%) with 0/3 or 45% SR
- Last year – Loss: 13.2 units off 36 units over 12 plays (ROT: -36.6%) with 5/12 or 41.6% SR
- Overall – Loss: 14.55 units off 161.5 units over 109 games (ROT: -9%) with 49/109 or 45% SR