Los Pumas v All Blacks
The Plus has Evaded Los Pumas
Los Pumas v All Blacks a fixture we have witnessed eleven times. Since admission to the Rugby Championship Argentina have lost 5 out of 5 handicaps. I have lost most of them, every year I get the belief that Los Pumas would stay in the plus.
This year Los Pumas have had their best Rugby Championship, two wins already and two games to play, both at home. Whilst at this stage I would have to say Argentina start favourite next week v Aussie and that they will also win that fixture, such is the low expectation of Cheika I now hold.
The Argentinians will look at next week’s fixture with a great big smile. This week however is an interesting one. Home games for Los Pumas in the Rugby Championship v All Blacks have been nothing less than bleak. New Zealand have as mentioned above, finished above the handicap each and every time.
The Bookies have stuck to copy and paste with regards to his year’s handicap. One cannot blame them, you cannot go over twenty, and you also cannot expect them to go under twelve. The All Blacks are the All Blacks after all and they don’t play around.
NZ Expect to Win Comfortably
New Zealand will fancy themselves to win and win comfortably, over the last five years NZ have scored a minimum of 33pts and a maximum of 54 points, most importantly NZ have held their hosts to just seventeen. Although Argentina have managed to score more than twenty in New Zealand, at home though getting to fifteen has been a battle.
This fixture was played at La Plata for three years and then moved to Buenos Aires, last year Argentina only managed ten points.
With a handicap of plus seventeen and a half this year I am again interested in the hosts. I do feel that Argentina have the ability to cover this handicap. I am also of the opinion that they do have a small chance of winning the game on the board.
6/1 is the board price here, it represents a 14% chance of winning. What makes me go for the Argentinians is that I have successfully called them in ¾ handicaps so far. I have gone a bigger price on all of them, narrowly missing out in Durban.
The Belief is There
If I am right and the hosts do indeed have the belief I believe they have, then this game should be a lot closer than what we have become accustomed to over the last five years. Mario Ledesma is no mug, he successfully beat the Boks by 13pts, beat the Aussies on the board which I called and beat a 14/10 plus v All Blacks.
All Blacks are wary of an onslaught, they should be. I expect Los Pumas to come out firing and I do expect them to go the full eighty. I am also interested in having a go on the board, it must be said though, had this team not won two matches already I would not have even given this a second look. Confidence is high and I now have the belief.
Kick off is scheduled for 00h40 GMT +2 on Sunday in Buenos Aires. The referee for this game will be Mathieu Raynal (FRA), Click here for the Weather in Buenos Aires and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #ARGvNZL
Call: Los Pumas +17.5 at 9/10 for 3 units and Los Pumas on the board at 6/1 for 1 unit
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