Ireland v Argentina
Hosts Unbeaten at Home v Argentina
Ireland v Argentina on Saturday. Argentina have never beaten Ireland in Ireland. In fact they have played in Ireland and lost nine out of nine. Their biggest loss has been 22pts. The closest Los Pumas have come is losing by 2pts twice.
In Ireland, the hosts have not kept Argentina scoreless, however on three occasions Argentina have failed to reach ten points. Ireland have scored a minimum of 17pts and a maximum of 32pts in home games against Argentina.
Ireland have had a reasonable year, winning the Six Nations by way of a Grand Slam. This year Ireland won all of their games. Ireland then went to Aussie and won an away series for the first time since 1978. It’s hard to argue that Ireland are not deserved favourites.
Mario Ledesma an Inspiration
Argentina on the other hand have had a great year, OK so June was not great, but they got rid of the dodgy coach and went with the Super Rugby coach. Mario Ledesma has been somewhat of an inspiration. Argentina won 2 of their six matches in this year’s Rugby Championship. Interestingly they came extremely close to winning a third, before falling apart in the second half v Aussie.
Argentina’s year had some highs, smashing a very good South African team by thirteen. Winning in Australia for the first time since 1983. Lastly coming close and being competitive in New Zealand. The game in New Zealand is very significant, although they lost by 22pts, Argentina never looked like losing the handicap at any point during that game, trailing by between 8 and 15pts the entire game, until the very last play of the game.
This week’s handicap set by the bookies appears to be Crack induced? I have no idea where or how they can honestly come up with such a disrespectful price? They are asking to be hurt, they are asking to be punished. I am of the opinion that the big punters out there will see the value and smash them.
It’s also possible that the mugs out there will think they see value in Ireland and punt them. Realistically the current handicap would have been beaten twice by Ireland and seven times by Argentina considering past results.
I have nothing for Ireland here, in fact I have decided to reduce my stake and have a bigger price strike. Statistically I have given one more prior game to go 6 / 3 in my favour. My call is a call based on value and that Argentina are in a good place right now. They may not win the game, but at 9/1 or 10/1 I may have an additional go.
Kick off is scheduled for 20h30 GMT +2 on Saturday in Dublin. The referee for this game will be Nic Berry (AUS), Click here for the Weather in Dublin and if you want to follow the game on Twitter click here for the Hashtag #IREvARG
Call: Argentina +13.5 at 15/10 for 2 units
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